Monday, March 19, 2007

Rule breakers -- certificates of deposit

I haven't finished reading either book yet, but I've started on both a RULE BREAKERS, RULE MAKERS by Motley Fool and also a book on Enron. The first section of the Motley Fool book is on how to identify and profit from buying "rule breakers." Those are growth stocks that you can tell are just going to be giant successes (well 2 out of 3 times). Reading about how Enron in the early 90s transformed itself from a gas pipeline company to one actively engaged in numerous gas-based derivative contracts, I couldn't help but think that Enron was by Motley Fool's definition a "rule breaker." No other energy company was applying advanced financial strategies to the industry. And I wonder how you would have figured out in the early 1990s that Enron's growth would eventually fail. They were no doubt pioneers in their particular field. If they'd kept their accounting honest, I guess they'd still be in business.

I shouldn't pick on Motley Fool, who're not an investing icon, but I think I'd rather put my money into certificates of deposit than try to guess which young "growth" companies at any point in time are going to be the rule breakers which keep them growing quickly. They describe some in the book, but how easy is it to catch them prospectively instead of retrospectively? And how easy is it to distinguish the ones who're going to be successful from the "faker breakers?" Especially if you're not familiar with a particular industry?